Hear directly from RBC Global Asset Management Chief Economist, Eric Lascelles in his monthly and quarterly updates. Representing RBC Investment Strategy Committee’s (RISC) economic views, Eric shares timely insights and the expectations of RBC GAM on the global economy.


Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

Disentangling macro and market crosscurrents - September 2018

Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist, RBC Global Asset Management, shares the latest views on the global economy and offers insight into today’s economic issues.

The webcast includes an audio and slide presentation.

Launch Presentation
Disclaimer


Key Highlights

  • The global economy looks to be slowing but is still growing at a decent rate. There is wide geographic dispersion of equity market performance around the world, with the United States performing the best and China down the most so far in 2018.

  • NAFTA negotiations are ongoing and our termination risks have lessened. We continue to believe there is a 25% chance that the current NAFTA survives into the future, perhaps because of the changing composition of U.S. Congress in a few months.

  • Trade uncertainty will likely exert some economic drag going forward. Further tariffs being implemented on China by the U.S. are a distinct possibility and would have a negative impact on economic growth rates. Global trade is actually moving fairly well right now – nominal trade growth is rising at approximately 15%.

  • Difficulties in Emerging Markets (EM) such as Turkey, Argentina and Venezuela seem to be isolated and there is limited contagion risk. However, the impact of a slowing Chinese economy, rising interest rates, and a strong U.S. dollar has contributed to the recent underperformance of EM asset classes.

  • In Italy, risks have diminished since 2011 – the banking sector is not as fragile, the public debt-load trend is stable and sentiment towards the Eurozone has improved. In fact, support for the EU and Eurozone across European countries has become more positive over the last four years.

  • Canadian economic growth has picked up in 2018 despite challenges such as the housing market and slowing credit and should continue to benefit from strong U.S. growth. We continue to monitor the Canadian housing market – sales activity and home prices are weak but housing starts are positive across Canada.

 

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Economic Compass

Eric Lascelles

Chief Economist
RBC Global Asset Management Inc.

View Biography >