Hear directly from RBC Global Asset Management Chief Economist, Eric Lascelles in his monthly and quarterly updates. Representing RBC Investment Strategy Committee’s (RISC) economic views, Eric shares timely insights and the expectations of RBC GAM on the global economy.


Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

Monthly Economic Outlook Webcast

A new year, thank goodness - January 2019

Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist, RBC Global Asset Management, shares the latest views on the global economy and offers insight into today’s economic issues.

The webcast includes an audio and slide presentation.

Launch Presentation
Disclaimer


Key Highlights

  • The stock market remains tumultuous, with stocks down sharply over the past year.

  • For 2019, various headwinds to global growth remain including tighter financial conditions, less help from fiscal stimulus, political tensions between the United States and Russia/China and increased protectionism hindering global trade (the bite of tariffs has already started to appear in global trade data).

  • Although global growth in 2019 will probably be slower than it has been over the past two years, it should still align with the five-year average.

  • The risk of recession is rising, and the stock and bond markets are both reflecting this risk.

  • On a positive note, stock valuations are now cheaper after recent market declines and worries over rising interest rates have subsided as central bank expectations have been scaled back.

  • Acknowledging that its growth is slowing, China appears ready to roll out more stimulus (most likely in the form of more tax cuts, interest rate cuts, and local infrastructure projects funded by bonds).

  • Italy passed a revised budget with a smaller deficit, suggesting that the country’s debt situation is not as bad as some people feared.

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve Board hiked interest rates in December, as expected, and the European Central Bank (ECB) has ended its bond buying.

  • While democrats took over the U.S. House of Representatives on Jan 3, 2019, damage from additional paralysis in the U.S. government should be limited.

 

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Eric Lascelles

Chief Economist
RBC Global Asset Management Inc.

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